A less-than-ideal offseason has many believing the Charlotte Hornets are doomed to be one of the, if not THE worst team in the NBA this upcoming season. It’s certainly an understandable projection based on Charlotte’s current scenario, but instead of accepting the fate of a team based on betting odds and projections from internet warriors, I want to look at what needs to go right for the team this season to not be a bottom-five team in the league, or potentially crack 30 wins (which nobody is projecting them to do). After all, wouldn’t having next-to-no established NBA talent on the roster and overachieving their way to pick out of the top 5 in the draft be the most Hornet’s thing to do? So here we go, 5 things that must happen for the Charlotte Hornets to overachieve and finish without a bottom-five win percentage in the 2020 NBA season.
1: The hype for other young teams is just that, hype.
Of course, I’m trying to frame things positively for the team that I care about, but at some point you have to be honest with yourself. As far as talent level goes, the Hornets have a strong claim for least talented roster in the league (that hurts to type). This isn’t necessarily indicative of what we’ll see next season though, there are plenty of NBA teams that fans and talk show hosts are expecting to improve upon last season, but in reality haven’t sniffed sustained success in any form for awhile. On paper, Phoenix, New York and Chicago all seem to have an improved roster but here’s a reality check, only one of those teams finished ’18-19 with a win total above 20 (Chicago won 22 games last season). Washington is primed to have a terrible season as well this year, with most of their talent from last season being plucked in free agency and being uncomfortably shackled to Bradley Beal for any hope of being a relevant franchise. Memphis won 33 games last year and are seemingly nailing a rebuild but like other teams I’ve mentioned so far, they’re definitely rebuilding. The Grizzlies have now moved on from their franchise cornerstones Marc Gasol and Mike Conley who gave the team its identity for the better part of a decade, and will also be starting a rookie point guard, (albeit one that I think will be great). Rookie point guards starting in the NBA rarely grade out well in advanced stats, have a good feel for the game at the NBA level right out of the gate, keep turnovers low, and handle ridiculously talented players on D most nights. That’s a generalized statement and one that probably applies to about every rookie but you get the point. Ja Morant’s game is impressive and fun to watch, but expect Memphis to slide down in the win column – and everything I just said applies to Coby White also, so temper those expectations folks. Also, the Cavs suck. The Hornets won 39 games last season – more than any other team discussed so far – but lost their top two scorers, so something has to happen to mitigate the loss of our once-beloved Jeremy Lamb and Kemba Walker. Which brings us to the second thing that must go right next season:
2: Charlotte gets the Scary Terry it paid for
Any serious NBA fan probably already knows Charlotte’s season will likely hinge greatly on Terry Rozier’s ability to lead the team and perform at a high level on a nightly basis. The franchise also paid him big money (a little over $19 million per year) to do those exact things. Unfortunately, paying players based on how the team wants them to perform instead of basing their pay on how they have performed isn’t exactly a sound recipe for success (Nic Batum, anyone?). That being said, maybe Buzz City got this one right. Terry Rozier certainly isn’t lacking in confidence or competitiveness, he’s performed relatively well in high-stakes (playoff) games and as a starter, which is why he just got paid. I think being vocal and willing to embrace a leadership role is another reason that Charlotte’s front office felt like signing Rozier was the right call and for the Hornets to not be utter garbage this season, it really has to be. Grabbing a confident young player to lead and grow alongside the rest of the young bugs isn’t a poor decision in a vacuum, the fact that it’s Terry Rozier at over $19 million a season is what makes this acquisition a serious risk. Hopefully, Scary Terry proves the haters wrong.
3. Dwayne Bacon starts sizzling
With Jeremy Lamb’s 15 points a game from the wing spot now residing in Indiana, there’s buckets from the wing that must be now be cashed in by somebody else – enter Dwayne Bacon. At 23 years of age, the Bake Man (you’re welcome) has plenty of time and room to grow, much like many players on this team. For our beloved Bugs to not get smacked around every time they take the court, Bacon will have to show some serious growth on top of the exciting foundation that he laid last season. Bacon racked up some gaudy stat lines in his G-league career, one of which was a 45 point bucket-fest. That scoring ability has to show up in more games against the “big boys”. There’s plenty of reason to believe it will, too. More minutes and a more consistent role almost always benefits players when it comes to finding their groove on offense – both things should be given to Bacon by the team the season rolls around. There was a stretch this past March with the Hornets (not in the G-league) where Bacon scored 20 points or more in three straight games against the Spurs, Lakers, and Raptors. Also, while not the most accurate sample due to a varying amount of playing time, Dwayne’s last season FG and 3pt percentages were 47.5% and 43.7% respectively (per ESPN). Those are very encouraging numbers from a young player who’s about to step into a prominent (hopefully starting) role on the wing. Bacon is also switchable on defense and considered to have great strength for his size. A breakout season for the Bake Man would do wonders when it comes to replacing Jeremy Lamb’s contributions to the team (Lamb was important last year, seriously). Right now, scoring would appear to be tough to come by this season. That pain could be lessened greatly if Bacon steps into his new role and thrives, it never hurts to have a guy that can efficiently get his own bucket, even better if he’s a solid defender. This guy has a lot of potential, he looks like he should be a great defender, can get hot from deep, can cover multiple positions, you get the idea. If the Hornets overachieve this season, Bacon’s emergence will be one of the reasons. Put money on that.
4: Malik Monk is who we thought he is
The Malik Monk situation has been sifted through again and again over the last two seasons. NBA fans now know why Monk slid in the 2017 draft, and as a lottery pick who hasn’t carved out a role or received meaningful minutes under two different coaching staffs on an underwhelming team, we’re entering “bust” territory. I don’t really like the term bust, but as humans we like to label things and that’s the label which befalls players who have a high billing that don’t meet the expectations put on them. Many Hornets fans (including myself) expect for Malik and the other young players on the roster to get extensive playing time in year 2 under Coach Borrego, for obvious reasons. There isn’t a player on the team that could turn expectations and the excitement level for this team on its head faster than Malik Monk. Scorching hot shooting touch? He’s got it. Ability to get his own bucket from anywhere? Yep. Ridiculous leaping ability? You best bet this man has serious ups. Monk’s game is full of the flashy, exciting, easy to sell, video-game-like abilities that are requirements to become a star in the modern NBA. Is Monk going to start this season? I think it’s doubtful, Nic Batum (gag) will probably start for his all-around ability and his knack for being a secondary playmaker. Bacon will probably start, Tony Parker is gone, and MKG is a great energy player but making plays on the offensive end is absolutely his worst attribute, which leaves the role of 6th man/spark plug/walking bucket off the pine to Malik Monk. I don’t see a reason that Monk isn’t capable of doing a pretty solid Lou Williams impression off the bench if given the opportunity to do so. Setting up plays for his teammates is something he’ll have to work on, but if his shot starts falling, defenses will quickly worry about him enough that he’ll have room to do so. Even if he doesn’t progress with initiating offense, he could still be effective if he can efficiently be his own offense. I mentioned a Lou Williams-type earlier, but a CJ McCollum lite would do wonders for this team and Monk’s career just the same. Having a guy that’s capable of torching other teams with just his jumper is another role that many contending teams have filled, and one that Charlotte would love to have. For Monk to do this, his efficiency must be the focus. His defense must improve, but he’s shown a willingness to play the passing lanes and isn’t afraid to run in transition and makes plays at or above the rim. Assuming Monk’s minutes will come off the bench and Miles Bridges will be starting at the power forward position this season, Malik will probably have MKG and Marvin Williams on the floor with him for the majority of his playing time. This is a scenario that could significantly help Monk flourish, being surrounded by defensively solid veterans who consistently bring hustle, energy, communication, and know the rigors of an 82 game season. Both of those players being in contract years may also factor into this upcoming season. If Monk can get comfortable in the pick-and-roll, he could be a nightmare, and he’ll need that comfort to grow his game and help Buzz City stack some W’s. You’ll notice this is a lot of ‘ifs’ and ‘coulds’, because the potential that made him the 11th overall pick in 2017 is still there, still untapped. This guy is only 21 (same age as Miles Bridges), he came into the league at 19 and only played one year of NCAA basketball (in which he set the Kentucky rookie scoring record in a game at 47 points, and the main reason he was a lottery pick, for sure). 3,310 of the last season’s points were scored by Lamb and Walker, who are gone. That number rises to 3,840 if you add in Tony Parker’s total points, and he retired this offseason. Somebody is going to have to score. There are exactly zero excuses for this guy to not see serious time on the court this season. If Monk proves that he’s ready to take a step and consistently be somewhat close to a Lou Williams or CJ McCollum type, the outlook for this season will change very quickly.
5: Meaningful production from the Center position
This requirement for overachievement was almost titled: A healthy Cody Zeller. The center position may be Charlotte’s weakest, and everybody knows the options after Cody Zeller are less than stellar (Willy Hernangomez has a great opportunity to prove me wrong). Upon doing a deep dive into Cody Zeller’s stats, Zeller’s best statistical productions don’t necessarily correlate to the teams best stretches and his stat line does not jump off the page. Despite that, it’s clear to anyone that pays attention to the Hornets how valuable he is to the team. What I can say with confidence is he’s the only starting caliber NBA center on the roster, and that’s the issue. Advanced stats tend to paint Cody pretty favorably, for example: FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO weighted averages over the last three seasons have him above the 75th percentile in the league in the following statistical categories: true shooting percentage, free throw frequency, rebound and block percentage, and defensive plus-minus. Judging off of those aggregations, Cody Zeller is no doubt a player that any team could make use of, and a player Charlotte desperately needs on the court. The Big Handsome (a nickname for him, apparently) is known to be a very good, maybe even elite screen setter and always grades out very highly as the roll man on pick and rolls, which the Hornets use in abundance. Unfortunately, health hasn’t been on his side as he’s missed an entire season’s worth of games (82) over the past two seasons. For all the great attributes that he has and all the numbers you can find to back up the quality of his production, he doesn’t help the team when he’s sitting in a suit. I would love to see a healthy starting Zeller throughout the whole season, but if injuries strike again, there has to be another answer. Bismack Biyombo started 32 games at center last season, and surprisingly enough, the Hornets went 17-15 in those games. Looking closer, Biyombo typically performed better against weaker competition. Only five of the 17 wins came against playoff teams, and all but three of the losses with Biyombo starting came against playoff teams (per basketball-reference). To me, that would indicate that Biz is a serviceable role player/backup, but he’s not going to give the team the extra manpower it needs to win matchups that the Hornets are expected to lose. Considering once again the talent that left Charlotte this offseason, if Biyombo is placed in a starting role this season I don’t think it’s far-fetched to assume that record will not be as pretty as it was in 18-19. Both Biyombo and Zeller need to stay aggressive on offense when they’re on the court next season, to help take the load off of the backcourt, and Zeller is much better at being reliable in getting points in the paint but it is not the hallmark of either player’s game. Looking at the dollar amount allotted to Biyombo and Zeller doesn’t help the situation at all, either. To dodge that bottom-five win percentage, Cody needs to be available for at least 60+ games or Willy Hernangomez has to take a step forward and play a much larger role this season. Of course, shipping out an expiring contract and second round pick for potential replacement might not be a bad idea either.
Putting it all together, the main takeaway from this list for me is internal development has to happen. Looking back on what GM Kupchak and Head Coach Borrego said upon their hiring, it’s clear that they anticipated improvement through drafting and molding new players. Now is the time for them to show the fans that they are capable of that. Getting a high volume of quality minutes out of 2017’s draft picks, (Bacon and Monk) who weren’t drafted by the current front office could rapidly change the trajectory of this franchise, maybe even instill a little faith in fans as well. Couple those two players playing at a high level with improvement from Miles Bridges and Willy Hernangomez and you have four out of five positions covered on the court with players 25 years old or younger that fans could get excited to see and a group of guys that could form a strong core for Charlotte heading forward. The other position would be occupied by Scary Terry, and if MJ got one right, this team can get 30 wins, especially if a should-be-in-his-prime Cody Zeller bounces back strong. Here’s to hoping.
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